More than 50,000 people died in Europe in the summer of 2026 because of extreme heat. This is stated in a study published by the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, where specialists calculated 50,391 excess heat-related deaths across 854 European cities. Excess mortality is the difference between the actual number of deaths and the expected number.
Overall, about 173 million people live in these cities. The highest mortality was recorded among people over 85, while by region the lowest figures were in Northern Europe and the highest in Southern Europe. Malta, Italy, Hungary and Croatia were the most affected by the heat.
According to the scientists' estimates, temperatures in Europe today are approximately 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than they would be in a scenario without human-induced global warming. According to the study, 65 percent of the more than 50,000 deaths (32,600) were likely caused by anthropogenic climate change. Almost one third of all excess deaths occurred in the period from June 17 to July 1, when average daily temperatures in Europe were on average 5.3 degrees Celsius above normal.
In 2025, the number of excess heat-related deaths was almost half as many, at 24,500. The study took into account only the urban population, which makes up about 40 percent of the total population of the 30 countries studied, so scientists conclude that the final figure for excess mortality in Europe must be even higher. In their estimation, the summer of 2026 was most likely the most dangerous summer in Europe's history in terms of heat.
This summer Europe faced its hottest period in recent years. Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Greece were the most affected.
Behind the numbers there is an important methodological nuance: the 50,000 figure applies only to cities, and that in itself suggests the real picture is more severe. When a study covers only 40 percent of the population, any "record" figure should be read as a minimum, not a final number.
The chronology is also noteworthy: almost one third of the deaths accumulated in just two weeks, from June 17 to July 1. This shows that the danger is mainly linked not to sustained heat throughout the summer, but to short yet extreme surges, which health systems struggle to respond to in time.
For the coming years, the main question is not the temperature figure, but how prepared cities are with cooling centers, care for the elderly and warning systems. These numbers are precisely a measure of that preparedness.
