Amid domestic political developments in Armenia, tensions in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations have gone largely unnoticed. At their core, these tensions stem from Baku's attempt to break free from Ankara's influence. Behind the brotherhood portrayed under the slogan 'One Nation, Two States,' disagreements between the two countries are deepening.
One of these disagreements came to light after Azerbaijan banned the wearing of Muslim headscarves, particularly hijabs, in schools and universities. Turkey reacted sharply and negatively to the decision, even though restrictions on religious freedoms in Azerbaijan are nothing new. Ankara's stance may therefore be driven not only by religious concerns but also by a desire to send a political signal to Baku.
After the 2020 war, when Azerbaijan captured Artsakh with support from Turkey, as well as Israel, Pakistan and Syrian mercenaries, the balance of power in the South Caucasus changed. Baku began to see itself as a more independent player and started opposing Turkish policies on certain issues, including Israel's role in the region.
Ankara had previously tolerated Azerbaijan's ties with Israel because that policy served its interests. Now, however, various figures in Turkey's political establishment are making harsh statements directed at Baku and calling for Azerbaijan to be put in its place. Azerbaijan has responded with an anti-Turkish campaign, banning dozens of Turkish journalists, public figures and politicians from entering the country.
At Baku's request, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan dismissed his chief adviser, Oktay Saral. At the same time, according to Turkish media reports, this may not be a final dismissal but rather a temporary personnel move, after which Saral could be appointed to another senior position.
The current tensions in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations show that even a long-standing alliance does not eliminate the possibility of conflicting interests. When Baku tries to make independent decisions on regional issues, Ankara may view this not as a partner's natural aspiration but as a challenge to the limits of its own influence. This is the central contradiction in their relationship.
The dispute over the hijab ban may be one way this rivalry is being expressed, but public statements alone are not enough to definitively assess the parties' real objectives. The same applies to Oktay Saral's dismissal: if it is indeed a temporary personnel move, its political significance may differ from the impression created at first glance. Developments in the coming period will show whether the two sides try to restore their previous relationship or whether their disagreements turn into a more open confrontation.
